A bankrendszer jövőbeni átalakulásának geopolitikai aspektusai

Absztrakt

Over the past decades, major changes have taken place and the financial system of the world has undergone a major transformation with the spectacular rearrangement of banking systems. Following the Second World War, the gradual deregulation of the regulations governing the conduct of financial activities, the expansion of internationalization, the rapid development of free capital flows, information and data transfer technologies were observed. Subsequently, the global financial and economic crisis of 2008/2009 broke this spectacular dynamics, with severe losses questioning the correctness of the business models used by banks. European and American banks have been forced to reduce their international exposure to balance sheet adjustment, return to profitability, and tightening capital and liquidity requirements. In many cases, the liberated market gaps were occupied by banks in emerging countries. Recent innovations, in addition to offering great opportunities, are major challenges for the stability of the financial system, for regulatory authorities, and even for monetary policy.
The central banks focus on Fintech and virtual money. It is an open question how the cross-border spread of innovation and its regulation affect global geopolitical power. Based on the experience of recent centuries, there is a clear correlation between geopolitical and geoeconomics. Financial and economic booms, bubbles and crises have always been linked to the most geopolitically strongest (from military, commercial and demographic point of view) countries of the age. The question is whether this trend will be maintained in the future or, if so, what global focal points will develop in the medium term reorganizing the current geopolitical power structure.