Statistical Analysis of Weather Parameters for Sustainable Flight Operation in Nigeria

Abstract

The recent complications in the weather system, which oftentimes lead to flight cancellation, delay and diversion have become a critical issue in Nigeria. This study however considers the weather related parameters and their impacts on flight disruption in the country. Weather data (on thunderstorm, wind speed and direction, visibility and cloud cover) and flight data (delay, cancellation and diversion) were collected from Murtala International Airport, Ikeja-Lagos, Nigeria. The data covered the period between 2005 and 2020. However, Regional Climate Models (RCMs) were also used to run climate data projections between year 2020 and 2035 in the study region. The study employed Statistical Package for Social Sciences (SPSS) software for the descriptive and inferential analysis. Time series analysis, Pearson Moment Correlation for interrelationship among the weather parameters and the flight disruption data, and multiple linear regression analysis were applied to determine the influence of weather parameters on flight disruption data. Results show that cloud cover and high visibility are negatively correlated. Wind speed has positive relationship with wind direction; and an inverse relationship between visibility, thunderstorm, and fog. Direct relationship exists between highest visibility and thick dust, wind speed and cloud cover. Thick dust, wind speed and cloud cover indicate increased visibility level in the study area. Flight delay is prominent over flight diversion and cancellation, which indicates their relevance in air traffic of the study area. The prediction model indicates high degree of cloud cover at the beginning of every year and later declines sharply in 2035, the visibility flattens out by the year 2025, and low pattern of thick dust was calculated in the same pattern in 2011, 2016 and 2027. Based on this conclusion, the study recommends accurate weather reporting and strict compliance to safety regulations, and attention should be paid to changing pattern of weather parameters in order to minimize fight related disasters.