Az Egyesült Államok és az Európai Unió geoökonómiai küzdelmeinek hatása a magyar gazdaságra

Absztrakt

The tariff war between the Trump administration and the European Union is likely to have severe effects on the economies of both blocs. As a Member State of the European Union and an extremely open economy, Hungary is likely to be heavily affected by a reduction in the trade volume between the two rival parties. Since the volume of the direct trade between Hungary and the Unites States is moderate, the direct effect of the transatlantic trade war on the Hungarian economy is not momentous. Nevertheless, the Hungarian economy is strongly linked to the German economy – through the machinery industry (e.g. automotive industry), – so the indirect effect (via Germay) of the trade war on the Hungarian economy is significant. In this article, we examine how the Hungarian trade volume and the growth of its economy have evolved and what effect world trade has on it. Using linear regression analysis, we found a strong relationship between world trade and changes in Hungarian foreign trade, as well as between Hungarian foreign trade and changes in the Hungarian GDP, especially if examined the period between 2010-2023. Our study concludes that a significant trade drop between the United States and the European Union would noticeably affect the Hungarian economic growth.